A.U.C - Tropical Usercyclone 36 (Logan) Advisories.
Tropical Userpression 36 - (Current Advisory) - Advisory 4 Despite very favorable conditions, the cyclone has continued to only gradually intensify. It is possible that the storm has landed in a pocket of high sheer. Infrared imagery does support that conclusion. However, even if there is a pocket of high shear, it should leave it soon. Once it leaves, it should have perfect conditions for intensification. The structure does appear to be getting ready for rapid intensification As said in previous advisory, he have moved it the storms advisories to a new page. We have operationally named the storm, however, if it never becomes a userstorm, it will officially be unnamed. INT: 35MPH 10HR: 40MPH - USERSTORM 12HR: 45MPH 18HR: 50MPH 24HR: 60MPH Forecaster Logan. Tropical Userpression 36 - Advisory 3 The tropical userpression the A.U.C has been tracking the last two days did not intensify as much as we expected. Microwave and satellite imagery suggests the structure of the cyclone is to blame. However, for the next two days at least, favorable conditions are ahead of it. Sea surface temperatures of around 30c and wind sheer of about 5 knots should allow the userpression to rapidly intensify. We here at the A.U.C will most likely be assigning names before the N.U.C, as seen earlier with the upgrade to Tropical Userpression. We will soon be moving this to a new page, as it is no longer a tropical userwave. To make it possible to use the same page all the way trough, we will be moving it to "A.U.C - Tropical Usercyclone 36A Advisories". Thank you for your cooperation and understanding. All have a good weekend. INTENSITY FORCAST INT: 30MPH 6HR: 40MPH - USERSTORM 12HR - 50MPH 18HR: - 60MPH 24HR: - 70HR - RAPID INTENSIFICATION Forcaster Logan Tropical Userpression 36 - Advisory 2 The tropical userwave that the A.U.C was tracking yesterday has organized enough to be considered a tropical userpression. Based on satellite imagery, it appears it was a userpression at 12pm, however we missed our advisory at that time. Given the rapid intensification we saw this morning, and favorable conditions ahead of it, I expect that it will surpass the threshold for rapid intensification for the next day or so, followed by much slower intensification, due to average sea surface temperatures ahead of it. INTENSITY FORCAST INT: 30MPH 7HR - 40MPH 12HR - 45MPH 19HR - 55MPH 24HR - 60MPH We now only predict intensity 24 hours in advance. Forecaster Logan Tropical Userwave 36 - Advisory 1 Yesterday, a tropical userwave left the coast of Africa. Over the past few hours, there has been some rapid organization of the wave, and so, on that basis, the Accom Usercane Center has decided to initiate advisories. It is expected that by tomorrow it will be a userpression based on this rapid organization. It is worth noting that it appears much of this organization is due to elevated sea surface temperatures - about 30c. However, it is still unclear if it will stay in that area of warm water. Whether or not it becomes a userpression, intensification for the next few hours seem unlikely, due to moderate wind shear. I am giving this wave an 80% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, as wind shear is expected to decay over the next 15 hours. INTENSITY FORCAST: INT: 15MPH 5HR - 15MPH 15HR - 30MPH - USERPRESSION 22HR - 40MPH - USERSTORM 27HR - 50MPH 37HR - 60MPH 42HR - 65MPH 49HR - 75MPH - USERCANE Forcaster Logan Category:Advisory subpages